Aviation industry faces rising turbulence and pilot fatigue risks

The global aviation industry is confronting two significant safety challenges: increasing atmospheric turbulence driven by climate change and widespread pilot fatigue.

Data analysis from 1979 to 2020 indicates that severe clear-air turbulence has increased by 55%, with moderate and light turbulence rising by 37% and 17%, respectively. Projections suggest that if global temperatures rise by 2.75 degrees Celsius, turbulence could increase by as much as 56%. These clear-air disturbances are particularly dangerous because they occur without visible clouds and are difficult for conventional meteorological radar to detect.

Simultaneously, a study by the European Cockpit Association (ECA) involving 7,200 pilots across 32 countries highlights a crisis of fatigue. Over 76% of respondents reported experiencing at least one micro-sleep episode in the cockpit within the previous four weeks. Many pilots admitted to flying while fatigued but cited fears of management repercussions, a desire not to draw attention to themselves, or a wish to avoid causing disruption to their employers as reasons for not declaring themselves unfit for duty.