AXIA-Alpha Finance issues Buy rating for AVAX Group

AXIA-Alpha Finance has initiated coverage of AVAX Group with a ‘Buy’ recommendation and a target price of €5.10, representing a potential upside of approximately 63% from current levels. Analysts suggest the market has not fully priced in the company’s improved balance sheet, the value of its concessions, or its diverse asset portfolio.

A key driver for the company is its substantial order book, currently valued at approximately €2.76 billion, which provides significant visibility for future years. About 85% to 92% of these projects are located in Greece, with major works including the Athens Metro Line 4, which accounts for 22% of the backlog. Analysts estimate AVAX could secure roughly €3.7 billion in new contracts by 2030.

The company is also undergoing a strategic shift in its profit mix. While construction accounted for roughly 82.5% of EBITDA in 2025, it is expected to decrease to nearly 60% by 2030 as the company expands into concessions, marinas, real estate, and facility management. Specifically, EBITDA from concessions is projected to grow from €9 million in 2025 to approximately €35 million by 2030.