Azerbaijan economic outlook: oil, mining, and investment trends

Azerbaijan is projecting significant growth in state investment and mining output. Public capital investment is expected to rise by 400 million manat ($235.3 million) between 2027 and 2030, reaching $3.4 billion annually by 2030. In the mining sector, Anglo Asian Mining reported a 40.25% increase in silver production during the first nine months of 2026, totaling 145,824 ounces.

The petroleum sector shows mixed results; while the manufacturing value of petroleum products reached $2.7 billion from January to September 2026, overall output decreased by 4.3% compared to the previous year. Specific declines were noted in gasoline, kerosene, and diesel, though heavy fuel oil production rose by 78.8%.

Fiscal stability remains closely tied to energy markets. The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) is projected to reach $73.9 billion in assets by 2030, though fluctuations in oil prices of $5 to $20 could impact these projections and the consolidated budget balance.