ADB lowers Bangladesh GDP growth forecast to 4 percent

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4 percent for the 2026–27 fiscal year. This is a reduction from the previous forecast of 4.5 percent issued in July.

Key factors contributing to the slowdown include a prolonged crisis in the banking sector, infrastructure bottlenecks, and severe energy shortages. The ADB noted that high non-performing loans (NPLs), weak bank balance sheets, and high interest rates have hindered private sector credit access, stalling economic expansion. Additionally, trade headwinds in South Asia, energy import volatility, and weather-related natural disasters have necessitated the downward revision.

While the industrial sector is expected to see growth slow to 3.3 percent due to high production costs and energy instability, the service sector may maintain positive momentum, potentially reaching 4.7 percent growth driven by strong remittance inflows. Inflation is also projected to rise, reaching an average of 9 percent in the 2026–27 fiscal year.