HSBC and major banks lower 2026‑27 gold price forecasts amid hawkish Fed

Global banking analysts revised down gold price expectations for 2026 and 2027 as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance and a stronger dollar dampen demand for non‑yielding assets. HSBC cut its 2026 average forecast to $4,560 per ounce from $4,864 and its 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000, noting that most downside risk is already priced in. Bank of America trimmed its 2026 outlook to $4,360 per ounce, a 14 % reduction, and its 2027 estimate to $4,925, citing the same monetary‑policy and currency dynamics. Spot gold was trading around $4,100 on July 9, more than 20 % below its all‑time high of $5,594, after a rally prompted by Middle‑East tensions receded. Analysts said central‑bank buying has slowed, while ETF outflows in the first half of the year could partially reverse in the second half. The combined revisions reflect expectations that higher U.S. rates and a firmer dollar will keep short‑term pressure on gold, though long‑term diversification demand and geopolitical uncertainty may still provide support.