Bank of Canada economists predict rate hike to 2.50%

A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that the Bank of Canada will raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% during its upcoming decision on October 28, 2026. This potential tightening comes as inflation accelerated to 3.1% year-over-year in September, driven largely by a 28% surge in gasoline costs due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.

While core inflation remains relatively contained at 2.2% when excluding fuel, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that high energy prices risk spreading inflationary pressures across the broader economy. The interest rate has remained at 2.25% since October 2025.