Bank of Italy study: Expected inheritances raise household consumption by 7% and cut savings by 17%

The Bank of Italy’s latest research, published on 26 July 2026, analyses how the prospect of receiving an inheritance influences Italian families’ economic behaviour. Using data from the Italian Household Budget Survey, the authors – David Loschiavo, Mirko Moscatelli, Eleonona Porreca and Francesca Zanichelli – find that households expecting an inheritance spend about 7 % more than comparable families and save roughly 17 % less.

Spending on non‑durable goods is up around 6 %, while the likelihood of purchasing durable items also rises. These families hold financial investments about 20 % higher and show a preference for higher‑risk, higher‑return assets. They rely more on consumer credit and, among households with members aged 16‑30, the chance of pursuing further education or training increases.

The authors stress that the results are statistical correlations, not proof of causality, but they suggest that expectations of future wealth can shift consumption and saving decisions before any actual transfer occurs, potentially widening economic inequality.