Banque de France forecasts 0.2% GDP growth for Q3 2026

The Banque de France projects a 0.2% growth in France's GDP for the third quarter of 2026, maintaining the same pace seen in the second quarter. This forecast, based on a survey of 8,500 companies, is slightly more optimistic than the 0.1% growth predicted by Insee in June.

The economic landscape is currently fragmented due to extreme weather. While the construction and commercial services sectors are benefiting from increased demand for air conditioning, other sectors such as agriculture, catering, and industry are facing losses. Industrial production has seen a slowdown, with the textile sector suffering from weak summer sales and the aeronautics sector experiencing a temporary production decline.

Significant uncertainties remain regarding this forecast. The Banque de France cited the potential impact of further heatwaves, worsening drought conditions affecting groundwater levels, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as primary risks to economic stability.