Barclays flags higher Brent risk as Hormuz impasse pushes oil prices toward $100

Barclays warned that its 2026 Brent price forecast of $96 per barrel could face upside risks of $2, $7 or $10 per barrel if the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz persists for one, two or three more months. Oil prices rose to just over $100 a barrel this week amid renewed hostilities that threaten a near‑halt in trade through the strategic waterway, which carries about one‑fifth of global energy supplies. The bank noted that spot prices could test $150 per barrel in a three‑month scenario, while a Reuters poll expects a global oil deficit in 2026 but an oversupply by 2027 thanks to recovering Gulf flows, strong U.S. production and weaker Chinese demand.

Barbados’ senior minister of energy, Kerrie Symmonds, said the government is maintaining a retail price ceiling on gasoline and diesel and using a strategic oil‑hedging programme to shield local motorists from the same global price volatility. Wall Street prediction‑market contracts show a slipping probability – down to about 47% – that regular shipping through Hormuz will resume by mid‑2027, reflecting market anxiety over the ongoing conflict.

These developments highlight how the Hormuz impasse is influencing both global oil forecasts and national policy responses.