BBVA Research projects Spain's GDP at 2.4% in 2026, lowers 2027 outlook to 2.1%

BBVA Research kept its forecast for Spain’s gross domestic product at 2.4% growth in 2026 but reduced the 2027 projection to 2.1% because of rising energy costs and the spill‑over effects of the Middle‑East conflict. The institute expects inflation to fall to 3.8% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, while the Euribor rate is projected to rise from 2.2% in February to 2.8% in May. It anticipates house‑price gains of about 12% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, supported by strong residential construction growth of 5.7% and 6.7% respectively. Export of goods is likely to contract by 1.2% in 2026 before modestly expanding by 2.4% in 2027, whereas non‑tourist services are expected to grow around 6.5% in 2026. The report warns that higher energy and fertilizer prices could cut GDP by 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and lift inflation by 1.3 points the same year.