Belarusian opposition prepares for potential regime vulnerability

The Belarusian democratic opposition, largely operating in exile, is preparing for a future moment of political vulnerability within the regime of Alexander Lukashenko. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has compared the current state of the movement to the years when Poland’s Solidarity movement operated underground.

While the 2020 mass protests in Minsk marked a significant shift in Belarusian society, they did not result in a change of government. Lukashenko remains in power supported by the Kremlin and domestic security forces. The movement currently lacks the specific conditions that aided Solidarity, such as deep domestic roots and a divided regime, but maintains momentum in anticipation of a shift in the political landscape.