BHP Group shares surge on copper strength and dividend outlook

BHP Group Ltd shares have risen sharply, up about 28% year‑to‑date and 54% over the past 12 months, closing at $58.28. The rally is driven by a surge in copper prices – the metal hit a record $6.60 per pound in May – and by strong production at the Escondida mine in Chile and the Antamina mine in Peru, which pushed full‑year output to the top of guidance. The company also secured a $4.3 billion upfront payment in a long‑term silver streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals, bolstering its balance sheet.

Analysts are mixed: Morgan Stanley remains overweight with a $67.50 price target, while most brokers hold the stock with targets ranging from $59.80 to $65. Dividend yield has fallen to about 3.75% from a five‑year average of 6.86%, reflecting a recent dip in payouts. BHP’s cost blowout on the Jansen Stage 2 potash project in Canada, now estimated at $6.9 billion, adds a downside risk.

Overall, BHP enters FY27 with strong copper exposure, solid operations and a robust balance sheet, but investors face higher project costs and a lower dividend yield.