BHP shares tumble after $5 bn cost overrun on Canadian Jansen potash project

BHP Group Ltd's shares slipped more than 10% from a recent record high, falling about 6.5% over the past five trading sessions. The sell‑off was triggered by the latest update on the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada. Management said Stage 2 will cost an additional US$4.9‑5.4 billion beyond earlier estimates and will incur an impairment charge of roughly US$2.3 billion, pushing the start of production to fiscal year 2031, two years later than planned. Analysts remain divided, with most rating the stock as a hold and price targets ranging from $40 to $95 per share.

Financially, BHP reported FY24 revenue of $56 bn, profit of $7.9 bn (down from three years earlier), a net debt of $9.5 bn, a debt/equity ratio of 45.3% and a return on equity of 19.7%. While the broader business retains strong cash flow from iron ore and copper, the cost overruns at Jansen have heightened investor uncertainty.