BIMCO warns of container shipping supply glut in 2027

BIMCO warns that the global container shipping market faces a significant supply glut in 2027. While geopolitical disruptions and longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope have helped absorb excess capacity in 2026, a rapid expansion of the global fleet is expected to outpace demand by 2027.

The global containership fleet has already surpassed 34 million TEUs. BIMCO projects capacity will grow by 4.6% in 2026 and approximately 9% in 2027. This growth is driven by a massive orderbook exceeding 14 million TEUs, representing about 42% of current operational capacity, alongside low levels of ship recycling.

Market conditions in 2027 will depend heavily on maritime routes. If shipping companies gradually return to using the Suez Canal instead of diverting around Africa, demand for vessels could drop significantly. BIMCO estimates that a full return to normal Suez operations could result in ship demand being roughly 10% lower than if Cape diversions were maintained. Additionally, potential developments in the Strait of Hormuz will influence demand growth projections.