Binance Research identifies crypto market near historical bottom window

Binance Research reports that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is currently 11.9 months past its all-time high. This timing aligns with the 11- to 13-month window observed during the formation of market bottoms in previous cycles.

Since reaching a local low in July, the total market capitalization has rebounded by 44%. This recovery suggests to some analysts that the macro bottom may have already passed. However, the report notes that a bottom is not yet confirmed. If prices fall below the July low, the current recovery could be invalidated, potentially leading to a deeper market low.

A key factor missing from the current cycle is clear investor capitulation. Using the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, Binance Research observed that the NUPL bottomed at 0.09. This is significantly higher than the lows of -0.31 in 2022 and -0.43 in 2018, indicating that fewer investors are currently experiencing deep unrealized losses compared to previous bear markets.