BIRODI model predicts Student List lead in Serbian elections

The Bureau for Social Research (BIRODI) has released an analytical model estimating potential outcomes for Serbia’s upcoming parliamentary elections. According to the central scenario, the Student List could secure approximately 48.5 percent of the vote, totaling about 2.003 million votes.

In contrast, the SNS list led by Aleksandar Vučić is projected to receive 38.6 percent (approximately 1.593 million votes), while the SPS is estimated at 3.9 percent (around 162,000 votes). Combined, the SNS and SPS would account for roughly 42.5 percent of the vote, trailing the Student List by approximately 248,000 votes.

BIRODI clarified that this is not a traditional public opinion poll or a final prediction, but rather an analytical scenario based on official 2012 election results, demographic shifts, and various data points from institutions like the Republic Electoral Commission, CRTA, and Ipsos. The model identifies youth turnout, opposition vote concentration, and the number of lists crossing the 3 percent threshold as critical factors. Total voter turnout is estimated at approximately 4.132 million.