Bitcoin ETFs Expected to Mirror Gold’s Long‑Term Cycle, Analyst Says

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds are likely to follow the 22‑year trajectory of gold ETFs, experiencing sharp gains, painful drawdowns and subsequent recoveries. He notes that both asset classes are wrappers around non‑yielding assets, so investor sentiment drives price swings.

Balchunas highlights BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as the largest Bitcoin ETF, now managing roughly $60 billion after briefly surpassing $100 billion in October 2023. Recent market data show a three‑day streak of $367.9 million net inflows across Bitcoin ETFs, driven by institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity and Bitwise. Cumulative inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $80‑85 billion, with net flows stabilising near $50‑52 billion, while outflows sit around $28 billion.

The SEC has approved higher position and exercise limits for IBIT options, a structural step that should deepen institutional participation. Similar dynamics are observed in Ethereum spot ETFs, where BlackRock‑backed products attracted $96 million in three trading sessions.

Balchunas warns that, like gold ETFs, Bitcoin ETFs may experience cycles of “triumph and pain,” and that investors familiar with the gold playbook may be better positioned to navigate future volatility.