Bitcoin eyes potential return to historical October gains

Bitcoin investors are closely monitoring the upcoming month for a potential return to the historical trend known as ‘Uptober’. Data from the past 13 years shows that Bitcoin closed in positive territory in October 10 times, with an average return of approximately 19 percent. This follows a break in the trend in 2025, when the cryptocurrency ended the month down 3.9 percent.

Market performance in October 2026 may be influenced by several key US economic indicators and Federal Reserve actions. Scheduled data includes the US labor market report, inflation data (CPI), and the release of Q3 GDP. The Federal Reserve is also expected to hold meetings during the month. Economic signals such as weaker inflation or employment data could support risk assets like Bitcoin, whereas unexpectedly high inflation might exert downward pressure.

Technical indicators also suggest potential shifts. Recent developments include a ‘Golden cross’ and a weekly close above the 50-week moving average, patterns that have historically preceded market recoveries or signaled the end of bearish phases.