Bitcoin faces crash fears due to historical midterm election drawdowns

Analyst Ali Martinez has identified a pattern of Bitcoin drawdowns occurring around previous U.S. midterm election cycles. Since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced declines of 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022.

While these declines coincided with significant market events—including the fall of Mt. Gox, the Bitcoin Cash split, and the collapse of FTX—analysts note there is no evidence that elections themselves cause these losses. The pattern describes declines surrounding election cycles rather than annual returns.

Recent market activity shows Bitcoin recovered approximately 40% from its July low of $57,850 to roughly $81,455 by October 22. However, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in outflows on October 22 ahead of a Federal Reserve decision.