Bitcoin market cycles may shift toward institutional rhythms

Analysts are observing potential shifts in Bitcoin’s market behavior, suggesting the asset may be moving away from its traditional four-year halving cycle toward longer-term rhythms influenced by institutional capital.

One analyst, Sherlock, argues that based on historical price cycles, Bitcoin may not reach a new all-time high before June 2027. This assessment is based on the fact that Bitcoin has not surpassed its October 2025 peak for 329 days. Historically, when Bitcoin fails to reclaim a peak within 238 days, the recovery has often taken significantly longer, sometimes exceeding 622 days.

Concurrently, analyst Willy Woo suggests Bitcoin might be transitioning to a 6-to-8-year rhythm tied to traditional finance's short-term debt cycles rather than the halving schedule. This shift is attributed to the growing influence of institutional channels, such as exchange-traded products and corporate treasuries, which now control a combined total of more than 2.7 million BTC. This institutional stock is more than 16 times the amount of new Bitcoin produced by miners annually, potentially making global liquidity and credit conditions more decisive factors for price than supply shocks from halvings.