Bitcoin may have reached a long-term bottom, according to Grayscale

Grayscale has indicated that Bitcoin may have established a long-term bottom, noting that the current market cycle features a shallower decline than previous ones. While historical bear markets saw declines of approximately 80% from cycle peaks, the current drawdown has been roughly 50%.

Recent price action, including a rally that lifted Bitcoin toward $79,500, suggests a potential turning point driven by renewed spot demand, ETF inflows, and short liquidations. Grayscale noted that reclaiming the 50-week moving average has historically supported lasting recoveries in 11 out of 13 observed instances since 2011.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen has also observed that Bitcoin entered an accumulation phase as of July 1. While the recent rally supports this thesis, Cowen maintains a cautious outlook, suggesting a possibility of a final price dip toward $44,000 in the fourth quarter, consistent with patterns seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022.