Bitcoin options expiry $9.6 bn shows bullish skew ahead of July 31 max‑pain

Deribit’s Bitcoin options expiring on July 31 carry about $9.6 billion in notional value across 149,267 contracts. Calls dominate the market with 115,954 contracts versus 33,312 puts, yielding a put/call ratio of roughly 0.29 – a level often interpreted as bullish. The exchange’s estimated “max‑pain” strike sits near $64,000, where Bitcoin is trading, indicating that many positions could be settled around that price.

The largest open‑interest cluster is the $72,000 call, followed by sizable interest at $70,000 and $80,000 calls, reflecting expectations of a potential upside break. Only about 5.5 % of call contracts are in‑the‑money, while roughly 18 % of puts are, underscoring the skew toward bullish bets. Analysts note that a bull‑call spread targeting $70‑$72 k accounts for roughly $3.3 billion of the total interest, further highlighting the market’s focus on a rally to those levels.

If Bitcoin fails to move higher, many out‑of‑the‑money calls could expire worthless, potentially limiting short‑term price upside but also keeping traders positioned for future upside moves.