Bitcoin prediction markets signal 34% chance of hitting $100,000 by 2026

Prediction markets indicate a roughly one-third probability that Bitcoin will reach a price of $100,000 before the end of 2026. On September 29, Kalshi’s contract for Bitcoin crossing $100,000 displayed a 38% chance with a 38-cent trade price, while Polymarket’s comparable contract showed a 31% probability at a 33-cent price.

These market expectations have fluctuated significantly in recent weeks. Kalshi’s odds for the $100,000 target rose from 17% on September 16 to a peak of 43% on September 22, before easing to current levels following a dip in Bitcoin’s price. To reach the $100,000 threshold from a baseline of approximately $83,100, the cryptocurrency would require a gain of roughly 20%.

The two platforms utilize different settlement rules: Kalshi relies on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, whereas Polymarket uses Binance one-minute BTC/USDT candles to resolve contracts.