Bitcoin volatility increasingly follows Wall Street trading hours

A study of cryptocurrency market data reveals that the volatility of major digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, is increasingly concentrated during Wall Street trading hours. Research based on Kraken’s XBT/USD market between 2016 and 2025 shows that the nine-hour window from 13:00 to 21:59 UTC accounted for 50.6% of Bitcoin’s daily realized variance from 2022 to 2025, a significant increase from 38.4% during the 2016–2018 period.

This shift suggests that while crypto markets trade 24/7, price discovery is becoming heavily tied to the US equity calendar. Evidence for this includes Bitcoin’s peak volatility shifting in alignment with US daylight-saving time transitions and a notable drop in variance during New York Stock Exchange holidays.

The trend appears linked to the institutionalization of the asset class through regulated futures, US-listed investment products, and market-maker hedging. Experts suggest that risk models assuming uniform volatility throughout the day may now underestimate risks during US business hours, necessitating adjustments in liquidity and margin designs.