Black Sea conflict drives surge in global grain prices

Conflict in the Black Sea region is driving significant volatility in global grain markets. International wheat prices have risen 45% over the last 12 months, with European soft wheat gaining 17.8% since the start of the year to reach $7.67 per bushel.

Russia and Ukraine continue to target strategic maritime and export infrastructure. Recent escalations include 35 missile raids against ports in the Odessa region, 22 attacks on ships, and 67 strikes on export infrastructure within a single month. Ukrainian forces have also targeted Russian infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, including drone strikes reaching Novorossiysk.

While a physical shortage of grain is not currently projected, the logistical difficulty of transport is increasing. Russia and Ukraine together account for approximately one-quarter of global wheat exports, with Russia serving as the world's top exporter and Ukraine as the fifth. Following the collapse of the United Nations-mediated grain deal in 2023, Ukraine has utilized routes through the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria to maintain exports.