Flávio Bolsonaro ramps up campaign as polls tighten and legal fights rise

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL‑RJ) is campaigning as a pre‑candidate for Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. Recent Datafolha surveys show President Luiz Inácio Lula leading with 41% of the vote in the first round, while Bolsonaro trails at 31%; a second‑round simulation places Lula at 47% against Bolsonaro’s 43%, a technical tie within the margin of error.

Bolsonaro’s platform includes promises of artificial‑intelligence‑driven public‑sector compliance, a sovereign data centre, tax‑cut measures, revoking Lula‑era decrees, privatising parts of state companies and expanding prison capacity. He also calls for classifying criminal gangs as terrorist organisations, increasing security measures and tackling hunger through expanded childcare.

Legal battles have intensified. The Superior Electoral Court ordered the removal of an AI‑generated deep‑fake image that linked Bolsonaro to imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro, citing electoral misinformation. The PT has also sought the takedown of a Bolsonaro campaign video, alleging premature negative propaganda. Additionally, the Federal Police’s operation against senator Jaques Wagner is expected to influence the political landscape.

Bolsonaro continues to criticize the Supreme Court’s “canetadas,” warning of legal‑certainty erosion and foreign‑investment loss, while positioning his campaign as a pragmatic alternative to the current administration.