Turkey earthquake risk: Millions of buildings identified as high-risk

earthquake risk building safety structural analysis urban transformation seismic hazard

Turkey is facing significant seismic risks across its urban landscape. The Chamber of Civil Engineers reports that approximately 6 million residences nationwide are in a risk pool, with a particular emphasis on multi-story buildings constructed between 1980 and 2000.

In Istanbul, the Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) has conducted rapid scanning tests on 40,000 buildings following 170,000 applications. Results indicate that 18,800 buildings constructed before 1999 carry high or very high risk, and 1,238 buildings are at risk of spontaneous collapse. The highest risk concentrations are noted in the Avcılar, Zeytinburnu, Bağcılar, and Bahçelievler districts.

In Tekirdağ, a project involving Namık Kemal University and the local governorate has completed 90% of a scan covering 230,000 buildings. Initial findings have identified between 2,000 and 3,000 buildings at risk of serious damage or total collapse.

In Izmir, spatial analysis suggests that 180,784 buildings in the metropolitan area are in a very high earthquake risk group, largely due to their age and location. Meanwhile, geologists offer varying perspectives on the Marmara fault; while some warn of a major event exceeding magnitude 7, others suggest that energy dissipation in certain fault segments may reduce the probability of a single, massive, devastating earthquake.

Entities

AFAD · Bolu · Chamber of Civil Engineers · Düzce · Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality · Kandilli Observatory · Murat Yün · Naci Görür · Namık Kemal University · Osman Bektaş · Tekirdağ Valiliği · Turkey

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 2 SOURCES] Initial scans in Tekirdağ have identified between 2,000 and 3,000 buildings at risk of serious damage or total collapse. www.habermeydan.com · www.gazetebirlik.com
[● 2 SOURCES] A project is underway in Tekirdağ to scan 230,000 buildings for earthquake risk, with 90% of the work completed. www.habermeydan.com · www.gazetebirlik.com
[● 5 SOURCES] Approximately 6 million residences in Turkey are considered to be in a risk pool. www.tr724.com · www.wanhaber.com · www.haber16.com · www.cumhuriyet.com.tr · www.sondakika.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] An analysis indicates that 180,784 buildings in the Izmir metropolitan area are in a very high earthquake risk group. dokuzeylul.com
[● 5 SOURCES] Multi-story buildings constructed between 1980 and 2000 require detailed examination due to earthquake risk. www.tr724.com · www.wanhaber.com · www.haber16.com · www.cumhuriyet.com.tr · www.sondakika.com
[● 4 SOURCES] The Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality reported that nearly half of 40,000 inspected buildings were classified as risky. www.karar.com · www.gazetepencere.com · www.aksam.com.tr · www.yenicaggazetesi.com
[● 3 SOURCES] Istanbul has 1,238 buildings at risk of collapsing spontaneously without an earthquake. www.gazetepencere.com · www.aksam.com.tr · www.yenicaggazetesi.com
[● 2 SOURCES] The probability of a devastating earthquake in West and Central Marmara has significantly weakened due to energy dissipation in fault segments. www.internethaber.com · www.karar.com