Botswana faces severe food and livestock risks from 2026 El Niño

A research report by Oratile Joyce Lesiapeto from the Parliament of Botswana warns of significant economic and food security risks due to an anticipated El Niño cycle projected between October 2026 and March 2027.

The study models a scenario featuring a 5% increase in average temperatures and a 25% decline in rainfall. Under these conditions, Botswana could face a 43.5% yield loss in major cereals, with maize production expected to drop to 5,650 tonnes and sorghum to 16,008 tonnes. This supply squeeze is projected to drive import dependency for maize and wheat above 97%.

Beyond crop failures, the livestock sector faces potential losses exceeding P1 billion due to heat stress, poor pasture regeneration, and increased mortality. The report notes that increased reliance on international markets during a regional drought could lead to higher procurement costs and retail food price increases, disproportionately affecting farming households who may lose agricultural income while facing higher costs for staples.