Brazil 2026 presidential poll shows Lula in technical tie

A new presidential election poll conducted by Nexus in partnership with BTG Pactual reveals a highly competitive landscape for Brazil's 2026 elections. In spontaneous voting scenarios, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 37% against 30% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

In simulated second-round scenarios, Lula faces technical ties within the margin of error. He is tied with Flávio Bolsonaro (46% to 45%) and with Ronaldo Caiado (45% to 44%). Lula maintains a lead over Romeu Zema (46% to 41%) and Renan Santos (47% to 38%) in head-to-head matchups.

The survey also noted a significant jump for candidate Augusto Cury, who rose from 2% to 11% in a single week. Regarding voter rejection, 49% of respondents stated they would not vote for Lula, while 50% stated they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro.