Brazil agribusiness faces inspector shortages and climate risks

Brazil's agribusiness sector faces dual pressures from climate phenomena and structural shortages. A deficit of 1,233 federal agricultural inspectors, combined with budget contingencies of R$474 million for the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) in 2025, threatens the country's sanitary defense and ability to prevent pests at borders and ports.

The El Niño phenomenon is further complicating the landscape by impacting crop yields and increasing production costs. While Conab estimates significant harvests for soy and corn, extreme weather events like droughts and floods threaten to disrupt supply chains for poultry, swine, and beef.

In response to these economic and climatic pressures, Deloitte predicts an increase in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) within the sector. High interest rates, tight credit, and the need for operational survival are driving industry consolidation. Domestic M&A activity reached R$3.2 billion across 14 operations through August, a 26% increase. Additionally, generational shifts in farm management are expected to favor more technology-driven and financially oriented business models.