Brazil eyes rare‑earth boom as global demand surges

Brazil holds the world’s second‑largest reserve of rare‑earth minerals, estimated at around 23 % of known global resources. In 2024 the country supplied less than 1 % of the roughly 390 000 tonnes of annual demand, but experts say production could rise to nearly 10 % of global supply if pending projects are approved.

Analysts from Itaú BBA, citing an S&P Global report, warn that the window to capitalize on this advantage is only two to three years. The main constraints are Brazil’s limited processing capacity and the need for faster licensing, financing and skilled labour. China currently dominates over 90 % of rare‑earth refining and 94 % of permanent‑magnet production, making downstream value capture difficult for Brazil.

A study commissioned by the Ministry of Mines and Energy projects the country could reach 35 000 tonnes of rare‑earth concentrate in the early 2030s (about 10 % of world output) and up to 75 000 tonnes by 2040 (20 % share), provided substantial investment – estimated at US$1.65 billion for a 25 000‑tonne‑per‑year separation plant – and supportive policies are secured.