Brazil nears full Chinese beef export quota as tariffs loom

China has imported 872,214 tonnes of Brazilian beef by the end of June, representing 78.9% of its annual quota of 1.106 million tonnes. Accounting for shipments still in transit, analysts estimate the total volume destined for China may already exceed the quota, potentially reaching about 1.19 million tonnes. Once the quota is met, any surplus faces a 55% surcharge on top of the 12% import duty, a combined tariff of 67%, which could reduce the competitiveness of Brazilian beef.

The surge in exports helped Brazil record a first‑half 2026 export value of US$9.93 billion and 1.811 million tonnes of meat, a historic high. However, the depletion of the Chinese quota is expected to curb exports in the second half of the year, especially as the EU also threatens a suspension over antimicrobial‑use certification. July saw a slowdown, with average daily shipments falling to 10.8 k tonnes, about 10 % below July 2025 levels.

Domestically, the reduced export flow has supported cattle prices. The “arroba” in São Paulo rose to around R$330‑340 per hundred kilograms, marking the first increase in over a month, while producers adjust slaughter schedules and some plants announce collective leave. The combined pressure of export limits and rising domestic prices underscores the tightening balance for Brazil’s beef sector.