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[BUSINESS] · Brazil · 100 sources

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Brazil's central bank lowers Selic to 14% in fourth consecutive cut

On 5 August 2026 the Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) of Brazil’s Banco Central cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage point, from 14.25 % to 14 % per year. It was the fourth consecutive reduction, bringing the cumulative decline to one full point since the cycle began in March 2025. The decision was taken unanimously.

The market had already priced in a further cut, with the Boletim Focus median projection of 13.75 % for the end of 2026. Inflation data showed the official IPCA at 4.64 % over the 12 months to June and the IPCA‑15 at 0.06 % in July, 4.52 % over the preceding year – still above the 3 % target band.

Copom cited external risks such as the Middle‑East conflict, oil‑price spikes and El Niño, and warned that any deterioration could pause the easing cycle. Industry groups (Firjan, CNI) argued the cut is insufficient, noting the Selic remains about 3.6 percentage points above the Taylor‑rule estimate of 10.4 % and that real interest rates stay near 10 %.

The central bank signalled that future moves will depend on inflation trends, labour‑market conditions and the external environment.

Entities

Arnaldo Lima · Banco Central do Brasil · Boletim Focus · CNI · Central Bank of Brazil · Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) · Committee of Monetary Policy (Copom) · Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) · Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN) · Copom · Federação das Indústrias do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Firjan) · Federação das Indústrias do Rio de Janeiro (Firjan)

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