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Brazil's central bank lowers Selic to 14% in fourth consecutive cut
On 5 August 2026 the Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) of Brazil’s Banco Central cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage point, from 14.25 % to 14 % per year. It was the fourth consecutive reduction, bringing the cumulative decline to one full point since the cycle began in March 2025. The decision was taken unanimously.
The market had already priced in a further cut, with the Boletim Focus median projection of 13.75 % for the end of 2026. Inflation data showed the official IPCA at 4.64 % over the 12 months to June and the IPCA‑15 at 0.06 % in July, 4.52 % over the preceding year – still above the 3 % target band.
Copom cited external risks such as the Middle‑East conflict, oil‑price spikes and El Niño, and warned that any deterioration could pause the easing cycle. Industry groups (Firjan, CNI) argued the cut is insufficient, noting the Selic remains about 3.6 percentage points above the Taylor‑rule estimate of 10.4 % and that real interest rates stay near 10 %.
The central bank signalled that future moves will depend on inflation trends, labour‑market conditions and the external environment.
Entities
Arnaldo Lima · Banco Central do Brasil · Boletim Focus · CNI · Central Bank of Brazil · Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) · Committee of Monetary Policy (Copom) · Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) · Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN) · Copom · Federação das Indústrias do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Firjan) · Federação das Indústrias do Rio de Janeiro (Firjan)
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 5 SOURCES] Annual IPCA projection fell to 5.03% from 5.12% in the latest Boletim Focus. gazetamt.com.br · portalterradaluz.com.br · sbtnews.sbt.com.br · www.noticiaja.com · correiodobrasil.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] July 2026 IPCA‑15 inflation preview was 0.06% year‑over‑year. oempallador.com.br · portalmatogrosso.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] High Selic rate is cited as a factor reducing investment in Brazil's industrial sector.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The dollar fell to R$5.1282 on 5 August 2026 as investors awaited the Copom decision.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Brazil's real interest rate is the highest in the world after inflation adjustment.
- [● 5 SOURCES] Market expects Copom to cut the Selic by 0.25 percentage point to 14% on 5 August 2026. correiodobrasil.com.br · gazetamt.com.br · portalterradaluz.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] The Selic rate is 14.25% per year before the upcoming decision. correiodobrasil.com.br · gazetamt.com.br · portalterradaluz.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] Industrial production in Brazil fell 1.8% in June 2026. sbtnews.sbt.com.br · ebookcult.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] Market expectations project the Selic at 13.75% by the end of 2026. gazetamt.com.br
- [● 10 SOURCES] It was the fourth consecutive 0.25‑percentage‑point cut in 2026. sbtnews.sbt.com.br · correiodobrasil.com.br · valor.globo.com · gazetamt.com.br · www.noticiaja.com · +5 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Copom projected inflation for Q1 2028 at 3.2%.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Selic reduction is expected to lower financing costs for small‑ and medium‑sized enterprises.