Brazil citrus market faces supply shifts and price volatility

The Brazilian citrus market is navigating a complex landscape of shifting supply and demand. For the 2026/27 season, Fundecitrus forecasts a harvest of 263.2 million boxes in the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt. While this is 3.1% higher than previous estimates, it represents a 10.2% decrease compared to the 2025/26 season, partly due to the impact of citrus greening disease (HLB).

Despite lower supply forecasts, orange juice prices have been declining since March. Market analysts attribute this to high retail prices, large inventories of frozen concentrated orange juice, and changing consumer preferences regarding sugar content.

Climatic factors are also playing a significant role. High temperatures associated with El Niño are expected to favor the consumption of fresh oranges, which may temporarily limit price drops. In September, rainfall impacted fruit availability and pricing; while table orange prices saw a slight decrease, Tahiti lime prices rose by 24.36% due to restricted supply during the off-season. A more significant increase in lime supply in São Paulo is anticipated in November.