Brazil confronts rapid population aging as elderly share exceeds 15%

New data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) show that people aged 60 and over now comprise 15.6% of Brazil's population, up from 11.3% in 2012 and projected to surpass the share of children under 14 by 2030. The shift is driven by lower fertility rates linked to urbanisation and greater access to education, alongside a steady rise in life expectancy.

Experts warn that Brazil's health system, the SUS, and public policies are not yet fully prepared for the growing demand for elderly care. Entrepreneur Etevaldo Miranda Jr. highlights the need for targeted support structures to ensure healthy ageing for the 60+ demographic.

Historical urbanisation trends also illustrate the demographic transition: between 1950 and 1980 Brazil's urban population grew at over 4% per year, later slowing to about 1.7% in the early 2000s, while rural growth accelerated then declined as agriculture mechanised. These patterns underpin the current ageing challenge and call for coordinated policy responses.