Brazil election polls show right-wing leads in gubernatorial runoffs

Recent polling data indicates a strong performance for right-wing candidates in Brazil's upcoming second-round gubernatorial elections. Candidates from the right are currently leading in four of the six states heading to a runoff: Acre, Distrito Federal, Espírito Santo, and Tocantins. In Amazonas, Omar Aziz (PSD) holds a numerical advantage over Maria do Carmo (PL), while in Rio Grande do Norte, Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) and Cadu de Lula (PT) are in a technical tie.

In the presidential race, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) maintains a lead over President Lula across several recent polls, including Atlas/Bloomberg and PoderData, though a BTG/Nexus survey shows them nearly tied. The Bolsonaro campaign is monitoring the government's decision to advance Bolsa Família payments, which includes a 15% adjustment, ahead of the second round. The Ministry of Social Development cited El Niño effects as the reason for the early disbursement, which will benefit approximately 19.3 million people.