Brazil's TSE suspends AtlasIntel poll showing drop in Flávio Bolsonaro support

The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) suspended the publication of an AtlasIntel poll that indicated a decline in the voter intentions for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a pre‑candidate for the 2026 presidency. The poll, conducted from 13‑18 May with 5,032 respondents, showed Luiz Inácio Lula leading with about 49 % while Bolsonaro fell to roughly 42 % after an audio recording surfaced in which Bolsonaro asked banker Daniel Vorcaro for money to finance a film about his father.

The suspension was ordered by TSE president Minister Kassio Nunes Marques following a request from the Liberal Party (PL), which argued that the questionnaire’s sequence of questions – employing “priming, framing and anchoring” – could bias respondents. In his decision, Nunes Marques wrote that “there are indications of methodological compromise that may have influenced the answers.” AtlasIntel contends the audio was presented only after the main questionnaire and has announced it will appeal the liminar.

The TSE plenary postponed the definitive ruling after Minister Estela Aranha asked for a view, leaving the suspension in effect while the court considers whether to set new parameters for future electoral surveys. The case is expected to shape the conduct of opinion polls ahead of Brazil’s presidential election in October 2026.