Brazil electricity tariffs projected to rise 9.4% in 2026

The National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) has increased its projection for average electricity tariff hikes in Brazil to 9.4% for 2026. This estimate, released in the InfoTarifas bulletin, exceeds previous forecasts and is nearly double the expected official inflation rates of 4.4% for IGP-Me and 5% for IPCA. The increase is primarily driven by financial components (4.7 percentage points) and sectoral charges (1.6 percentage points).

To mitigate these impacts, Aneel is distributing approximately R$ 5.5 billion from the renegotiation of Public Good Use (UBP) obligations of hydroelectric plants to distributors in the Sudam and Sudene regions. This transfer to the Energy Development Account (CDE) has already helped reduce the national projection by 1.9 percentage points.

Separately, data from the Energy Research Company (EPE) shows that national electricity consumption grew by 2.6% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year. This growth was led by the residential sector (up 5.8%) and the commercial sector (up 4.9%), while industrial consumption saw a slight recovery of 0.2% after three quarters of decline. The free energy market (ACL) continues to expand, accounting for 45.7% of total national electricity consumption.