started · updated
Brazil Tesouro Nacional adjusts debt composition amid high interest rates
Brazil's Tesouro Nacional has revised its Annual Financing Plan (PAF), increasing the target for Selic-linked bonds to between 49% and 53% of the Federal Public Debt (DPF) by the end of 2026. This shift responds to high interest rates and investor preference for predictable returns. The total DPF is projected to remain between R$ 9.7 trillion and R$ 10.3 trillion by late 2026.
In July, the DPF rose by 0.22% to reach R$ 9.288 trillion, driven by interest appropriations of R$ 89.95 billion which offset debt redemption. Meanwhile, Caixa Econômica Federal reported a recurring net profit of R$ 3.9 billion for the second quarter of 2026, a 5.9% annual increase, supported by strong mortgage credit growth despite rising delinquency rates in the agribusiness sector.
Tax collection data shows mixed results. Federal tax collection in July rose 8.97% compared to the previous year, reaching R$ 289.3 billion. However, revenue from taxes on dividends has reached only R$ 3.145 billion from January to July, representing just 18.3% of the revised annual forecast of R$ 17.2 billion. Economists at XP Investimentos have adjusted their 2026 Selic terminal rate projection from 14% to 13.25%, anticipating further cuts in September and November.
Entities
Banco Central · Banco Central do Brasil · Brazil · Caixa Econômica Federal · Claudemir Malaquias · Marcelo Gomide · Receita Federal · Receita Federal do Brasil · Tesouro Nacional · XP Investimentos
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 4 SOURCES] XP predicts a 0.25 percentage point Selic cut in September and another in November. www.dgabc.com.br · www.spacemoney.com.br · tribunadepetropolis.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Brazil spent R$ 1.16 trillion on public debt interest in the 12 months ending June 2026. jornalparana.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The nominal deficit is near 10% of GDP. jornal.usp.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Public debt exceeds 80% of GDP. jornal.usp.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Mandatory expenses accounted for over 60% of R$ 2.3 trillion in paid expenses in 2025. jornalparana.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] XP Investimentos reduced its 2026 Selic terminal rate projection from 14% to 13.25%. www.dgabc.com.br · www.spacemoney.com.br · tribunadepetropolis.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] Tax collection on dividends from January to July reached R$ 3.145 billion, which is 18.3% of the revised annual forecast of R$ 17.2 billion. portaldiarioderondonia.com · informa1.com.br · poa24horas.com.br · destakjornal.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] Federal tax collection reached R$ 289.3 billion in July, a real increase of 8.97% compared to July 2025. valor.globo.com · guiadoinvestidor.com.br · paraibatotal.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Tesouro Nacional's revised Annual Financing Plan (PAF) sets a target for Selic-linked bonds to comprise 49% to 53% of the Federal Public Debt (DPF) by the end of 2026. agoranointerior.com.br · fatopaulista.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] The total Federal Public Debt (DPF) is projected to be between R$ 9.7 trillion and R$ 10.3 trillion by the end of 2026. agoranointerior.com.br · fatopaulista.com.br · amazonianarede.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Interest appropriation amounted to R$ 89.95 billion in July, which prevented a decrease in the debt stock. amazonianarede.com.br · salvadornoticia.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Federal Public Debt (DPF) increased by 0.22% in July, reaching R$ 9.288 trillion. amazonianarede.com.br · salvadornoticia.com · dev.tnonline.com.br