Brazil fuel consumption could drop 20% by 2035 due to electric vehicles

A study by Bradesco BBI projects that the expansion of electric and hybrid vehicles could reduce gasoline and ethanol consumption in Brazil by approximately 20% by 2035. The report estimates that electrified vehicles will represent 31% of the national fleet by that year, growing from the current 3% to 10% in 2029 and 20% in 2032. By 2035, these models are expected to account for more than half of all new vehicle sales.

This transition is expected to decrease dependence on imported gasoline but may pressure ethanol producers due to potential excess supply and lower margins. The shift will also significantly increase electricity demand, with charging needs potentially reaching 13.5 TWh by 2035, roughly 21 times current levels. Additionally, the change could lead to a loss in tax revenue linked to petroleum derivative consumption.