Brazil market raises 2026 primary deficit projection to R$ 53 billion

Financial market projections for Brazil’s 2026 primary deficit have increased to approximately R$ 53.048 billion, according to the latest Prisma Fiscal report released by the Ministry of Finance. This is an increase from the September estimate of R$ 52.271 billion.

In contrast, the median projection for the 2027 primary deficit was revised downward from R$ 45.35 billion to R$ 44 billion. Regarding the Gross General Government Debt (DBGG), analysts raised the 2026 forecast from 83.2% to 83.4% of GDP, while the 2027 projection remains steady at 87% of GDP.

The Prisma Fiscal system, which aggregates expectations from approximately 70 financial institutions and consultancies, also noted an increase in average federal revenue estimates for 2026, rising from R$ 3.202 trillion to R$ 3.21 trillion.