Brazil poll shows ideological split among Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro supporters

A Datafolha survey conducted on 17‑18 June 2026 interviewed 2,004 voters in 139 municipalities across Brazil. The poll classifies respondents into five ideological bands using 16 questions on behavior and economics. Overall, 44 % of Brazilians were placed in the right or centre‑right segment, while 39 % fell into the left or centre‑left segment.

Among those who said they would vote for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), 24 % were classified as right or centre‑right and 60 % as left or centre‑left. The breakdown for Lula’s supporters was: 24 % left, 36 % centre‑left, 16 % centre, 19 % centre‑right and 5 % right.

For Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), 64 % were classified as right or centre‑right and 19 % as left or centre‑left. His supporters’ distribution was: 25 % right, 38 % centre‑right, 17 % centre, 15 % centre‑left and 3 % left. The study notes a shift from the 2022 election, when the right‑leaning share was 34 % and the left‑leaning share 49 %.

A separate Datafolha poll in São Paulo showed Lula and Flávio tied at about 35 % in a first‑round scenario, with a slight edge for Flávio in a simulated second round.