Lula maintains lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in July 2026 Brazilian election poll

Multiple July 2026 polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential race. The Genial/Quaest survey recorded Lula at 40% in a first‑round scenario and 45% in a simulated second round, while Flávio trailed at 28% and 37% respectively, giving Lula an eight‑point advantage. The same poll noted a 48% approval rating for Lula’s government versus 47% disapproval – the first positive balance since December 2024 – and a rejection rate of 57% for Flávio compared with 50% for Lula. The Futura/Apex poll found the two candidates virtually tied in a second‑round runoff (46.3% for Lula, 46.1% for Flávio). Other surveys reported similar leader‑board positions, with Lula’s support ranging from 40% to 46% and Flávio’s from 28% to 46% depending on the scenario. The research also highlighted the impact of recent political drama: a video released by ex‑first‑lady Michelle Bolsonaro increased Flávio’s rejection and drew mixed reactions from right‑leaning voters. A separate Nexus/BTG poll indicated that 27% of respondents prefer a candidate outside both Lula’s and Bolsonaro’s camps. Overall, Lula leads in voter intention, approval, and relative rejection, while Flávio faces rising repudiation.