Brazil presidential candidates' plans fail to stabilize public debt, study finds

A study by the think tank Ranking dos Políticos has concluded that none of the six primary candidates for the Brazilian presidency have government plans capable of stabilizing the country's public debt.

The analysis evaluated 1,297 proposals from candidates Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury. The study tested these proposals against current fiscal framework constraints and the constitutional 'golden rule.' According to the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP is required to stabilize gross debt, whereas the projected primary result for 2026 is -0.4% of GDP.

Romeu Zema ranked first in the study, with an estimated gap of R$ 392 billion (2.9% of GDP) from the necessary stabilization trajectory. Augusto Cury followed closely with a R$ 393 billion gap. Ronaldo Caiado was third, followed by Lula, Renan Santos, and Flávio Bolsonaro, whose plan showed the largest gap at R$ 496 billion (3.6% of GDP). The study notes that all plans move the country further from debt stabilization rather than closer.