started · updated
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in 2026 presidential polls
Recent polling data for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election indicates a highly polarized and closely contested race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
In a Quaest simulation of a second-round runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 42% to Lula's 41%, a difference within the margin of error. In the first-round scenario, Lula holds a lead with 37% compared to Bolsonaro's 33%. Other candidates, including Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado, remain in the single digits. Regional data shows variation: Bolsonaro leads in the second-round simulations for São Paulo and Minas Gerais, while Lula maintains strength in the Northeast and Southeast.
Economic expectations also diverge along partisan lines. According to BTG/Nexus, 58% of Lula supporters anticipate economic improvement over the next six months, whereas 41% of Bolsonaro supporters predict a short-term economic decline.
In Pernambuco, separate polling shows a tight race for the governorship between Raquel Lyra and João Campos, while Lula maintains a significant lead over Bolsonaro in that state's presidential simulations.
Entities
AtlasIntel · Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · João Campos · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Quaest · Raquel Lyra
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] In a BTG/Nexus first-round simulation, Lula has 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 37%. alotatuape.com.br · istoe.com.br
- [● 5 SOURCES] In a Quaest second-round simulation, Flávio Bolsonaro has 42% and Lula has 41%. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · portaloinformante.com.br · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · inmagazine.ig.com.br · istoe.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 58% of Lula voters expect the economy to improve in the next six months. exame.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] In a Quaest first-round simulation, Lula has 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 33%. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · portaloinformante.com.br · inmagazine.ig.com.br · istoe.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] In Pernambuco, Governor Raquel Lyra (48.6%) and João Campos (47.4%) are in a technical tie for the governorship. www.metropoles.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] In Pernambuco, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round with 58.3% to 29.9%. veja.abril.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 41% of Flávio Bolsonaro voters predict the economy will worsen in the short term. exame.com