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[POLITICS] · Brazil · 56 sources

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Brazil presidential polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie FAST-MOVING

Recent polling data for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election indicates a highly competitive race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

According to Quaest, Lula leads the first round with 37% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 33%, a difference within the margin of error. In a second-round simulation, Bolsonaro holds a slight numerical advantage with 42% against Lula's 41%. The poll also notes that both candidates face high rejection rates, with Bolsonaro at 56% and Lula at 55%. Additionally, Quaest reports that 50% of respondents disapprove of the current Lula administration.

Separate data from Nexus/BTG shows a different first-round scenario, placing Lula at 40% and Bolsonaro at 37%. In their simulated second round, Lula leads with 46% to Bolsonaro's 45%.

In the state of Ceará, AtlasIntel/Focus data shows Lula maintaining a significant lead, with 56.6% in the first round and 57.7% in the second, while Bolsonaro trails with 33.8% and 38.3%, respectively.

Entities

AtlasIntel · BTG Pactual · Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Nexus · Nexus/BTG · Palver · Quaest

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