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Brazil presidential polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie FAST-MOVING
Recent polling data for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election indicates a highly competitive race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
According to Quaest, Lula leads the first round with 37% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 33%, a difference within the margin of error. In a second-round simulation, Bolsonaro holds a slight numerical advantage with 42% against Lula's 41%. The poll also notes that both candidates face high rejection rates, with Bolsonaro at 56% and Lula at 55%. Additionally, Quaest reports that 50% of respondents disapprove of the current Lula administration.
Separate data from Nexus/BTG shows a different first-round scenario, placing Lula at 40% and Bolsonaro at 37%. In their simulated second round, Lula leads with 46% to Bolsonaro's 45%.
In the state of Ceará, AtlasIntel/Focus data shows Lula maintaining a significant lead, with 56.6% in the first round and 57.7% in the second, while Bolsonaro trails with 33.8% and 38.3%, respectively.
Entities
AtlasIntel · BTG Pactual · Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Nexus · Nexus/BTG · Palver · Quaest
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 3 SOURCES] In a head-to-head second-round matchup, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 45%. portaltucuma.com.br · www.diariodeaparecida.com.br · www.em.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Disapproval of the Lula administration remains at 50%. oantagonista.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In Ceará, Lula has 56.6% in the first round and 57.7% in the second, while Flávio Bolsonaro has 33.8% and 38.3% respectively. focuspoder.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Approval of the Lula administration rose from 43% to 44%. oantagonista.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] In a stimulated first-round scenario, Lula has 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 37%. portaltucuma.com.br · www.diariodeaparecida.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a stimulated first-round scenario, Lula has 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 33%.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Palver poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 42% and Lula with 41% in the first round, and 47% to 43% in the second round. portals1.com.br
- [● 14 SOURCES] In a second-round simulation, Flávio Bolsonaro has 42% and Lula has 41%. contraponto.jor.br · www.gazetaweb.com · www.moneyreport.com.br · oantagonista.com.br · rpnews.com.br · +7 more
- [● 7 SOURCES] In the first round, Lula has 37% of the votes against 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro. contraponto.jor.br · oantagonista.com.br · www.cartacapital.com.br · www.em.com.br · extra.globo.com · +1 more
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Quaest poll indicates that 50% of voters disapprove of the Lula administration. oantagonista.com.br · rdmonline.com.br · www.estadao.com.br
- [DISPUTED] In the first round, Lula has 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 33%. contraponto.jor.br · oantagonista.com.br · extra.globo.com · www.em.com.br · folhadenoticiasgo.com.br · +5 more
- [● 3 SOURCES] In a second-round matchup according to Nexus/BTG, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 45%. www.diariodeaparecida.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · portalbnu.com.br