Brazil Presidential Election: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

• [● 2 SOURCES] 12% of voters earning up to one minimum wage are undecided for the second round.
• [● 2 SOURCES] The national average for voters who may change their choice is 7%.
• [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula by 2.2 million votes in the first round.
• [● 2 SOURCES] 92% of respondents are convinced of their voting choice.
• [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula leads among female voters with 54% compared to 39% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
• [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio Bolsonaro leads among male voters with 57% compared to 36% for Lula.
• [● 3 SOURCES] 92% of respondents state their voting decision is already made and will not change. www.estadopolitico.com.br
• [● 3 SOURCES] In valid votes, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 52% and Lula holds 48% according to BTG/Nexus.
• [● 3 SOURCES] In the BTG/Nexus poll, Flávio Bolsonaro has 48% of voting intentions and Lula has 45% in the second round.
• [○ 1 SOURCE] The Gerp poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 55% of valid votes against 45% for Lula. jornaldepenedo.com
• [● 4 SOURCES] The difference between the candidates is within the two percentage point margin of error, representing a technical tie.
• [○ 1 SOURCE] The Gerp poll is registered with the TSE under protocol BR-07877/2026. jornaldepenedo.com