Brazil projects record federal revenue of 23.7% of GDP in 2026

The Brazilian federal government projects that total federal revenue will reach a record R$ 3.24 trillion in 2026, representing 23.7% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If realized, this would be the highest percentage in the National Treasury's historical series dating back to 1997, surpassing the previous record of 23.6% set in 2010.

This revenue includes federal taxes as well as other inflows such as royalties, concessions, and dividends from state-owned enterprises. The oil sector is expected to be a significant driver, with projected revenues of R$ 172.1 billion in 2026, or 1.3% of GDP, bolstered by international oil price fluctuations.

Other factors contributing to the revenue growth include recent taxation measures on offshore funds, exclusive funds, and betting activities. However, some economists express concern that spending growth may outpace revenue increases, potentially leading to a primary deficit.