Brazil regulators warn of fraud risk in predictive markets for corporate fiduciaries

Predictive markets, where participants bet on real‑world outcomes, are increasingly used as risk‑management tools by corporations. Brazilian authorities highlight that such platforms can become venues for insider trading and breaches of fiduciary duties. The Central Bank’s Resolution CMN No. 5.298/2026 limits derivatives linked to social and political events, while the CVM’s recent circular emphasizes that accessing non‑public political or poll data ahead of its release may constitute illicit advantage. Company directors must now monitor these markets as part of their risk oversight, as sudden price movements can signal information leaks or manipulation. Failure to comply can lead to severe sanctions under existing securities law.