Brazil sugar sector faces global deficit and credit program hurdles

global sugar deficit Brazil Soberano Copersucar StoneX forecast cane mills credit

Consultancy StoneX raised its forecast for a global sugar deficit to 1.7 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year, up from a previous estimate of 0.55 million tonnes. The revision reflects deteriorating outlooks in the European Union, where dry heat and reduced rainfall hamper beet production in France and southern Germany, and below‑average rains in India and Thailand. At the same time, StoneX increased its estimate of a global surplus for 2025/26 to 2.94 million tonnes.

Separately, Copersucar – the world’s largest sugar and ethanol trader – says the cane‑mill suppliers that provide its raw material are unable to access Brazil’s Brazil Soberano credit programme because they lack the required Export Declaration. The company has approached the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, which passed the issue to the Federal Revenue Service for review. Copersucar reported revenue of R$ 65.8 billion and net profit of R$ 631 million for the 2025/26 season, having sold 17 million tonnes of sugar and 21 billion litres of ethanol worldwide. The Brazil Soberano programme was launched with R$ 30 billion in credit for exporters hit by U.S. tariffs, later expanded with additional allocations of R$ 21 billion and R$ 18.5 billion to address impacts from the Iran‑related Hormuz closure and further tariff increases.

Entities: Brazil · Brazil Soberano · Copersucar · Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services · StoneX

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 3 SOURCES] Copersucar sold 17 million tonnes of sugar and 21 billion litres of ethanol worldwide during the 2025/26 season. (Copersucar)
[● 2 SOURCES] Dry heat and reduced rainfall in the European Union have worsened beet development in France and southern Germany, contributing to the projected sugar deficit. (StoneX)
[● 3 SOURCES] The Brazil Soberano programme initially offered R$ 30 billion in credit, later expanded with R$ 21 billion and R$ 18.5 billion in subsequent versions. (Government of Brazil)
[● 3 SOURCES] Copersucar reported that its supplying cane mills cannot access the Brazil Soberano credit programme because they lack the required Export Declaration. (Copersucar)
[● 2 SOURCES] StoneX forecast a global sugar deficit of 1.7 million tonnes for the 2026/27 marketing year. (StoneX)
[● 3 SOURCES] Copersucar posted revenue of R$ 65.8 billion and net profit of R$ 631 million for the 2025/26 season. (Copersucar)
[● 2 SOURCES] StoneX increased its estimate of the global sugar surplus for 2025/26 to 2.94 million tonnes. (StoneX)
[● 2 SOURCES] Rainfall deficits in India and Thailand have further lowered the outlook for the 2026/27 sugar crop. (StoneX)